Latest Update on the 2024 Russia-Ukraine War

It’s safe to say the Russo-Ukrainian War has surprised everyone involved.

From the resilience of Ukraine’s outnumbered defenders to Russia’s success in accomplishing key objectives, it’s actively redefining the way modern warfare is conducted on a day-to-day basis.

Most onlookers, after all, expected that the war might last a few weeks–or at most a few months–before Ukraine’s government eventually declared defeat… but over a year and a half later, both sides are still locked in battle.

This leaves us with the question: how long could this war last?

And what’s the possibility that Russia will turn to its vast nuclear arsenal?

To answer these questions, we’ll explore the centuries-long relationship between these two countries, evaluating how this war started, how it’s progressed over the last eighteen months—and how it’s likely to end.

Let’s get started.

Table of Contents

• 01

  A Long History of Tension and Temporary Cooperation

• 02

  Ukraine’s Cold War with Russia (2014-2015)

• 03

  Readying for Battle (2014-2022)

• 04

  Russia’s New War in Europe (2022-2023)

• 05

  Prigozhin's Fate

• 06

  A New Era of Instability (2023-)

• 07

  The #1 Threat from Russia’s War with Ukraine

• 08

  War Never Changes

A Long History of Tension and Temporary Cooperation

Russia’s complicated relationship with Ukraine traces back to the medieval age with Kievan Rus, an East Slavic state that existed from the ninth to the thirteenth centuries.

For both Russia and Ukraine, Kievan Rus was their historical predecessor. As the name implies, its capital was located in Kyiv, in modern-day Ukraine. This early state played a crucial role in developing the Eastern Slavic culture and Orthodox Christianity, which have long been prevalent in both countries.

Over the centuries, however, Russia’s imperial ambitions led to Ukraine being partitioned, with a portion of the country under the control of Russia, while the rest of the country was controlled by Poland.

Consequently, it wasn’t until the early twentieth century that the two countries were reunited, with Ukraine joining the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1922.

Less than two decades later, however, the scourge of World War II would put the young Soviet Union to the test. And though the USSR eventually emerged victorious from the conflict, it was only after losing 27 million soldiers and civilians.

Approximately 3.9 million of those wartime deaths, it should be noted, came from what’s called the “Holodomor,” or the Ukrainian genocide.

Unfortunately, the Holodomor is often glazed over in historical accounts. Indeed, the Soviet state for years denied that the genocide even occurred.

Nevertheless, records show that the Soviet Union’s systemic starvation of the Ukrainian people (through restrictive food rationing and other measures) led to the deaths of millions–etching an indelible mark on the Ukrainian psyche.

Then, following the conclusion of World War II, Ukraine was reconstituted within the Soviet Union, and its borders were altered, including the addition of Crimea from Russia. Very quickly, this region became vital to the Soviet Union, hosting key industries and the Soviet Black Sea Fleet.

But by the late 1980s, Soviet communism was coming apart at the seams. As a result, the Soviet Union underwent political and economic reforms under Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika.

Though these reforms were meant to strengthen pride and faith in the Union of Soviet states, they had almost the opposite effect. Coupled with rising nationalist sentiments in Ukraine, perestroika led to the declaration of independence from the Soviet Union in August 1991 following a referendum.

Ukraine’s independence and the dissolution of the Soviet Union marked a critical turning point in the relationship between the two countries.

No longer a servant to the Soviet state, Ukraine was now poised to compete for the same business and economic resources as Russia. This means that what had once been a powerful asset was now a potential liability—even a threat to the future prosperity of Russia’s people.

For most of the next decade, Russia reeled from the collapse of its empire. Rampant inflation and sovereign debt defaults kept the country’s imperial ambitions in check until the turn of the twenty-first century.

Ukraine’s Cold War with Russia (2014-2015)

Recently, under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, Russia has sought to restore some of the once-great empire it controlled in past generations.

That began with skirmishes in Georgia and South Ossetia in 2008 but eventually spread to Ukraine. Putin’s primary cause (or excuse) for initiating conflict in Ukraine lies in the country’s control over the Crimean Peninsula.

Crimea had been part of Russia for centuries until it was transferred to Ukraine in 1954—essentially as a gift to celebrate the two countries’ 300-year alliance. That alliance had long since ended, and Russia wanted Crimea back.

But it wasn’t just a matter of principle, either.

Because recent assessments just so happen to have discovered an estimated two trillion cubic meters of natural gas underneath the Black Sea. Ergo, whoever controls the Crimean Peninsula has a front-row seat for what could become the next major energy hotspot.

Another central point of conflict emerged in Eastern Ukraine, in the now well-known Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Pro-Russian separatist movements began to materialize in these border regions, often supported by Russia and willing to engage in armed conflict with Ukrainian security forces. What began there as a few skirmishes persisted into years of attrition fighting and loss of life.

Finally, there were the tolls.

Many of Putin’s Soviet-era gas pipelines run straight through Ukraine, so they can sell their gas to Western European states like Germany. This was a practical decision at the time. But once Ukraine became independent, they started charging Russia for using these pipelines.

Ultimately, all these issues came to a head in 2014, when then-President Viktor Yanukovych chose not to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union—opting to strengthen the country’s ties with Russia.

Ukrainians objected to this decision, clearly wishing to leave their servitude to Russia in the past, and staged mass protests now known as “The Revolution of Dignity.” Consequently, Yanukovych’s government was removed, and the country’s ties with Russia became even more strained.

Russia responded by taking decisive military action, sending soldiers into the Crimean Peninsula before staging a local referendum (widely doubted by experts) in which the locals apparently elected to rejoin the Russian Federation.

The results of this conflict weren’t a clear victory for either side.

Ukraine, for its part, lost one of its most important energy assets without even putting up a fight. But Russia had awakened a kind of animosity not felt since the Ukrainian Genocide some seventy years before.

Readying for Battle (2014-2022)

Following the events of 2014, Ukraine rapidly trained and modernized its army.

The sudden threat of further aggression from Russian invaders was enough motivation for the government to prioritize military funding. They also leaned on relationships with NATO-friendly allies to provide armaments, supplies, and knowledge to help Ukraine win the fight.

As far as the United States government is concerned, their role in this fight isn’t much different from their role in Russia’s Afghanistan conflict—famously depicted in Charlie Wilson’s War.

The bottom line is that every $78,000 Javelin missile the US sends to Ukraine costs Russia $3 million in lost tanks or troop carriers. That’s the kind of trade the Pentagon will take any day of the week. It's also the reason why so many governments are flooding Ukraine with weapons and supplies. Most of this gear, after all, was built to fight the Russians anyway.

The US government even sent in CIA paramilitary experts to train the new army—showing them how to use their new weapons and preparing them to battle with an invading Russian Army. These operations, notably, were conducted in secret and only revealed after the beginning of the war.

This training is a significant advantage, too. Instead of being a “general purpose” army designed to handle foreign and domestic threats, Ukraine’s Ground Forces is a purpose-built force designed to answer only one threat and one threat alone.

Based on what we’d see in the first year of the War, it’s safe to assume this training centered around answering Russia’s armor advantage with next-gen anti-tank weapons. They were almost certainly trained to expect an attack from the North and the East, with control of Kakhovka Reservoir as a significant objective for the invaders (since it unlocks a vital supply of fresh water for Russians in Crimea).

Russia’s New War in Europe (2022-2023)

Tensions finally boiled over in February of 2022, as Russia sent 300,000 troops across the border and into Ukraine.

To an impartial observer, it might seem like Putin expected the invasion to be a pushover. His previous operations in Georgia and Crimea, after all, had each been a success. Plus, Ukraine’s government was in the hands of a literal comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Likewise, even though he knew of some scattered military support, Putin likely didn’t know about Ukraine’s CIA training or the coming deluge of heavy weapons. As a result, he may have expected his army to roll right through Kyiv while the Beijing Olympic Games distracted the world.

Regardless of his motivations, Putin declared the “Special Military Operation” at 5 AM Kyiv time on February 24, 2022. He claimed pro-Russian Ukrainians in the Donbas had been suffering “humiliation and genocide” at the hands of the government, which he likewise alleged to be under neo-nazi Western control. 

But despite nearly a year of preparation and staging, Russia’s invasion didn’t exactly go to plan.

Reports abounded from military corruption to missing tank armor and failure-prone tires bought from China on the cheap. Despite these internal issues, the Russian army still attacked an entrenched, highly motivated, well-equipped enemy on unknown ground. That’s a difficult task for any fighting force.

Russia was also confronted by a pair of unseasonably warm winters, which saw the icy Ukrainian landscape turn into churned mud far sooner than expected. This forced Russia’s tanks and support vehicles to avoid overland travel and instead march single file up established roadways—making a near-on perfect target for Ukrainian anti-tank missiles.

Additionally, Russian conscripts found themselves facing entirely new threats, like Turkish Bayraktar drones and American Switchblade drones that could attack at any time with zero notice. The United States even helped network Ukraine’s assets by providing up-to-the-minute intel on strategic targets and enemy leadership.

As a result, Russia’s march to the Capital City of Kyiv was essentially stopped dead in its tracks before turning around and heading home. Russia’s invasion along the East, meanwhile, has been slightly more successful. They carved a path of destruction to the Kakhovka Reservoir, which was breached on June 6, 2022, solving their water problem in Crimea.

But based on all reports, both sides are dishing out just as much punishment as they’re taking. As such, the Ukrainian government has reported 13,000 killed, while BBC reports nearly 45,000 dead for Russian and Pro-Russian Forces.

The cost in terms of Russian military losses, too, is nothing short of tremendous. Its newest weapons, including everything from the T-14 Armata tank to the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, have all essentially fallen flat. The Economist estimated that the invasion is costing Russia $67 billion per year. Meanwhile, entire Ukrainian cities have been wiped off the map by the last year’s fighting.

But even after eighteen months, the invasion continues.

So what’s next for Russia’s War in Ukraine?

Prigozhin's Fate

Prigozhin with Putin in 2013. (Image Courtesy of The Moscow Times)