The Doomsday Clock: 90 Seconds to Midnight in 2024

(Image courtesy of Alaska Native News)

We think that you will agree that you don't need a doomsday clock to tell you that we are on the verge of an existential crisis in the year 2024. It's as if we have our own internal clock that can weigh and measure the global catastrophe that seems just around the corner.

The emergence of artificial intelligence arises and your personal doomsday clock moves seven minutes to midnight. Russia's war in Ukraine has made a hot war with NATO a real possibility and this moves the clock two minutes closer.

A nuclear arms test in Iran is almost certain to take place within the next year as they have sped up enrichment at a breakneck pace.  An American presidential election that is sure to be the most contentious of all time means that a global superpower is on the precipice of civil unrest.

You don't need the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists CEO, Rachel Bronson, to tell you that the world is dangerous in 2024. The world is closer to midnight than ever and the only question you have to ask yourself is what are you going to do about it. 

How the Doomsday Clock Came to Be During the Cold War

While you don't need an external reminder to tell you that existential threats abound all around us, it is helpful to remind the public at large what we face. It exists to frighten the public and political leaders just how close we are to the brink. The doomsday clock was created in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago to communicate the threat in plain English that the common man could understand. 

The detonation of nuclear bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki put a swift end to the Second World War and simultaneously kicked off a global nuclear arms race. The Soviet Union detonated its first nuclear bomb in 1949 and with that the genie was out of the bottle.

We'll show you below the various adjustments made to the clock over the years. When you compare those world altering events with the state of current affairs, you'll see just how ominous it is when the clock was set and how the 100 seconds to midnight remained unchanged in 2021 and 2022, but was moved further in 2023, to bring the clock at 90 seconds to midnight.

The Doomsday Clock remains there, as the world in 2023 entered a global crisis that hasn't been seen in years. As the world faced unprecedented challenges and breakthroughs, 2023 entered into uncharted territory, marking a pivotal year in history

This is in stark contrast to 1991, when the clock was the furthest at 17 minutes to midnight. We've seen progressive movements throughout as the Doomsday Clock ticks ever closer. In 2018, it was moved to two minutes to midnight.

(Image courtesy of Chicago Tribune)

An Existential Threat Bigger Than Nuclear Arms

The Doomsday Clock has always been closely associated with the threats of nuclear war, but it is important to note that the Bulletin takes into account the varied existential threats that could deliver a human catastrophe. After all, if the hands of the doomsday clock reaching midnight means the end of all things, we must consider all things. 

The clock's adjustments have also accounted for factors like climate change, the rise of artificial intelligence, bioterrorism and more. At each meeting, scientists from the Bulletin work to account for these factors, gauging the overall risk of any potentially civilization-ending cataclysm.

There may be those that scoff at the idea of including climate change. The world suffered its hottest year since global records began, despite it being a record-breaking year for clean energy. 2023 also was a record-breaking year on many fronts, with policies that limited the strategic nuclear arsenals of certain countries. However, while policies around nuclear weapons and climate change help reduce major global threats, the Doomsday clock discussion focuses on more pervasive issues.

Artificial intelligence is the new kid on the block and we struggle to fully contemplate the depths of that threat apart from what we've seen in science fiction movies. Elon Musk, who knows a thing or two about artificial intelligence, is unequivocal that artificial intelligence is the most pressing existential threat to the human race. Scientists and other experts largely agree and yet, hostile nations are pursuing its development without checks or balances in place. 

Caption: Russia’s nuclear weapons mobilized in Belarus (Image courtesy of DW )

The 2020 global Covid-19 pandemic showed us just how fast a biological threat can circle the globe. What started as a few cases in China spread across the world in a matter of weeks and by just 2022, it was difficult to find a person who hadn't contracted the virus.

It also showed us the threat that government overreach can pose. They'll change the clock for war and climate change in a heartbeat, but when they started arresting people for sitting on open beaches alone and left the clock unchanged, it let us know they are not catching every threat imaginable. 

Yet, the clock will still be primarily focused on the status of strategic nuclear arsenals around the world and the probability of all out nuclear war. There is no coming back from that one and that mutually assured destruction has been what has kept the peace thus far. As such, let's take a quick look at how the clock has changed over the years and why the clock set at 90 seconds should spur every family to action. 

Turn Back the Clock or Move it Forward

The Doomsday Clock is assessed once a year by the science and security board at the annual conference of The Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists. The hands may be adjusted to reflect material changes in the overall threat of a civilization-ending collapse. If the situation hasn't materially changed, the clock will remain unchanged.

It has been adjusted a total of 25 times since its inception. Only 8 of those moves have taken it backward—indicating a reduction in the threat of a nuclear apocalypse—while 17 have taken the clock forward and closer to a potential conflagration.

(Image courtesy of Patch )

Here's a quick rundown of each adjustment since the Doomsday Clock was first introduced after World War II:

• 1947: Seven minutes until midnight. Despite the end of the second world war, tensions still ran high. The Yalta Conference of 1945 established a postwar peace that would be nuanced at best. But tensions soon escalated between the United States and the Soviet Union, with a Cold War in the works. The mere existence of nuclear weapons and their use to end the Second World War transformed global power dynamics. So it's hardly unreasonable that the clock started so close to midnight.
  
  
• 1949: Cut from seven down to four minutes. In 1949, the Soviet Union successfully tested the RDS-1, their first atomic weapon. Two adversaries now possessed the powerful weapons and it was the first indication that the world was about to become a very dangerous place.
  
  
• 1953: Cut from three minutes to midnight to two. The world's first thermonuclear devices were tested as a part of Operation Ivy in November of 1952, with the Soviets completing their own Joe 4 test in August of 1953.
  
  
• 1960: Boosted from two minutes to seven minutes: The earliest years of nuclear armament saw massive stockpiling on both sides, but it also came with a rapid evolution in understanding atomic weapons. Soviet and American forces took steps to reduce the risk of "massive retaliation."
  
  
• 1963: Boosted from seven to 12 minutes: After the Partial Test Ban Treaty was signed, the administrators of the Doomsday Clock became substantially more optimistic about the state of affairs. The term "mutually assured destruction" was now part of the modern lexicon.
  
  
• 1968: Cut from 12 to seven minutes: This substantial cut reflects a sharp change in global affairs. Up until this point, From America's escalating involvement in the Vietnam War to the Indo-Pakistan War of the same era, along with new nations (France and China) acquiring and testing nuclear weapons, several different causes contribute to this sharp cut.
  
  
• 1969: Boosted from seven to 10 minutes: Every nation except for Israel, India, and Pakistan signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  
  
• 1972: Boosted from 10 to 12 minutes: The Soviet Union and the United States agreed to the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), reducing the potential threat of global nuclear annihilation.
  
  

Brezhnev and Nixon signing SALT treaty (Image courtesy of Atomic Archive )

• 1974: Cut from 12 to nine minutes: After the SALT II talks stall, India tests its first nuclear weapon (Smiling Buddha), and America and/Soviet Union both test their first Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs, missiles that could carry multiple nuclear payloads per missile) the risk is ratcheted back up.
  
  
• 1980: Cut from nine to seven minutes: As the Soviet-Afghan war heats up, SALT II talks fail, and the US Senate refuses to ratify the agreement.
  
  
• 1981: Cut from seven to four minutes: 1980 was a pivotal year that saw US President Jimmy Carter withdraw the United States from the Moscow Olympics while arguing that the only way to end the Cold War was to win it. Meanwhile, the Iran-Iraq war surges, while China tests atmospheric nuclear warheads and human rights deteriorate worldwide.
  
  
• 1984: Cut from four to three minutes: The Soviet-Afghan War further intensified the Cold War, while the Soviet boycott of the Olympic Games and Ronald Reagan's push to win the cold war by ramping up efforts all escalated tensions. It's important to remember that the Doomsday Clock is subjective and based primarily on preceding events. In other words—they had no idea what was coming next.
  
  
• 1988: Boosted from three to six minutes: In December of 1987, the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which improved relations and relaxed tensions across the board.
  
  
• 1990: Boosted from six to 10 minutes: The fall of the Berlin Wall signified that the reunification of Germany might soon be underway—and with it, the end of the Cold War.
  
  

(Image courtesy of CNBC )

• 1991: Boosted from 10 to 17 minutes: This was the largest single boost in the Doomsday Clock's history, when midnight was 17 minutes away on the clock. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the approval of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), the threat of nuclear annihilation was believed to have dissipated.
  
  
• 1995: Cut from 17 to 14 minutes: The threat of post-Cold-War Soviet proliferation persists. Weapons, as money and brainpower are still pouring into the sector.
  
  
• 1998: Cut from 14 to nine minutes: India and Pakistan simultaneously test their nuclear weapons in a recreation of the standoff between US and USSR forces. As the reduction of nuclear stockpiles slows, tensions begin to escalate.
  
  
• 2002: Cut from nine to seven minutes: Various treaties begin to fall apart as global disarmament slows. Roughly a year after the end of the Soviet Union, Russia struggles to find its footing in the world.
  
  
• 2007: Cut from seven to five minutes: The clock is further reduced in the mid-2000s due to North Korea's first nuclear weapons tests in 2006. In addition, Iran publicly for the first time in 2007 that they were in pursuit of a nuclear bomb. 
  
  

(Image courtesy of Reuters )

• 2010: Boosted from five to six minutes: Global consensus shifted towards better controls with the NEW START agreement ratified by the US and Russia. This and the United Nations Carbon Change Conference created the greatest reduction in the Doomsday Clock in over a decade.
  
  
• 2012: Cut from six to five minutes: As the reduction in global nuclear stockpiles grinds to a halt, the Doomsday Clock is again ticked closer to midnight.
  
  
• 2015: Cut from five to three minutes: The failure to address global climate change combined with the problem of nuclear waste and the rapid modernization of nuclear weapons add up to a reduction in the Doomsday Clock.
  
  
• 2017: Cut from three to 2.5 minutes: Aggressive rhetoric between the United States and nations such as North Korea and Iran made the potential for a regional nuclear war much higher.
  
  
• 2018: Cut from 2.5 to two minutes: The United States and Russia continued to approach each other as strategic adversaries while the Bulletin continued to weigh nuclear technology and climate science as equal threats.
  
  
• 2020: Cut from two minutes to 100 seconds: With the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty ending and escalating tensions between the US and Iran, scientists from the Bulletin concluded that the world was in "the most dangerous situation humanity has ever faced." As a result, the countdown was reduced so that it could only be measured in seconds, where it would remain for the next 3 years. Doomsday Clock 2022 and 2021 stayed the same.
  
  
• 2023: Cut from 100 to nearly 90 seconds:  Russia's failing invasion of Ukraine has led to more nuclear rhetoric form Putin and his allies, with the Doomsday Clock set at 90 seconds.
  
  

It is important to note that even when the United States and the Soviet Union were seconds away from war during the Cuban Missile Crisis that the clock still had many minutes to go. When Nikita Khrushchev banged his show on the podium and declared, "We will bury you," the clock still had minutes to go. That we are one minute and half from doomsday in 2024 should hit different in our psyche. Whether the clock will remain at 90 seconds or not is irrelevant. What matters now is what we do in those "90 seconds" to prepare our families for the worst as the hands of the clock continue to inch closer. 

How to Prepare During Our 90 Seconds to Midnight

In past articles, we've examined how a nuclear war might happen and which areas would most likely survive the attack.  Remember, while the clock could be turned back, it's important to prepare in case of nuclear escalation or other events. With midnight due just around the corner, now is the time.

The standard prepping rules apply as you will need food, water, weapons, and medicine all the same. What makes nuclear survival different is that we will focus on your ability to breathe and your ability to detect radiation. We're not going to focus on whether the nuclear missile hits overhead directly. For that, you can just hide under you school desk like they told you in the 60's and subsequently experience your own personal hottest year on record. 

The Immediate Aftermath of a Nuclear War

If you survive because you are on the periphery of the immediate blast radius, your first concern will be your ability to breathe. The smoke will be substantial and because the blast will have burned everything in site, the chemical compounds in the air will be toxic to say the least. Most people will not have a gas mask as most people are woefully underprepared. Your ability to breathe and focus will be critical in the first few minutes after a nuclear attack. 

Thus, the first piece of gear you'll want to consider is a gas mask if you don't already have one. A full-face respirator like the CM-6M protects each family member from chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats. Combine it with the right filter (like an NBC-77 SOF), and you'll have a tool to safely navigate the aftermath of a nuclear detonation, reactor meltdown, dirty bomb, or bio-weapon attack.

The CM-6M features a wide, panoramic visor with dual ports for gas 40mm gas mask filters, an integrated hydration system, and a wide range of customizable accessories. It's an easy, practical choice for any adult, with a shelf life of 20 years. For smaller children, we recommend something like the MD-1 gas mask instead.

Nuclear Weapons and Radioactive Fallout

Next up is a practical detection tool since radiation would be a definite threat in a nuclear conflict. The scale of the radioactive fallout from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not full known at the time the bombs were dropped. However, the subsequent follow up made it clear that by the end of 1945, the number of killed in the attack more than doubled due to the effects of radiation. 

The radioactive fallout will drift west to east for the most part and knowing the direction of this moving threat will be essential. Particularly if you are on the move, you will want to know if you are moving into an area of higher radiation. For that, We recommend the Geiger-2 since it uses the same standard Geiger-Muller tube as military-issue dosimeters. It also has an integrated LCD screen to help you navigate various features and settings. You can use the Geiger-2 to set limits on daily exposure or monitor exposure over time, and it's an outstanding tool that's as easy to use as your iPhone.

Because you can't guarantee that you'll never encounter radiation, we must recommend potassium iodide tablets.

These will be essential in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange or in the event of a reactor meltdown. You're flooding your system with safe potassium iodide by taking one of these tablets. As a result, your body won't absorb the dangerous Iodine-131 isotopes produced by those events. I-131 can concentrate in the thyroid gland, causing cancer. These pills help prevent that from happening.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Nailed it in 2023 and 2024

We have to acknowledge that when the powers that be moved the clock the closest it has ever been in 2023, they may very well have hit the nail on the head. When they left the clock unchanged from the prior year, as Russia sent numerous worrying nuclear signals, they affirmed the threat. Nuclear powers are on the brink and metaphorically, you only have "90 seconds" to prepare. 

Maintain your ability to breathe clean air. Ensure that you can shelter in place or navigate free from radioactive fallout. Combine those two essentials with the rest of your survival skills and short of hiding in a pre-made fallout bunker, you'll have the best shot at keeping you and your family alive until the world is stable again. 

Instead of publishing a long-winded journal or evaluation, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists gives us the Doomsday Clock and, with it, a message that transcends language and understanding. The year 2023 entered into uncharged territory bringing us the closest to midnight we have ever been. The time to prepare is now.