Amidst the numerous conflicts unfolding in 2024, the pressing question on everyone's mind is: What countries will be in World War 3? This concern arises as the world grapples with escalating geopolitical tensions fueled by a complex mix of economic, political, and environmental challenges. Increased conflict in key regions such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia is becoming a significant point of concern for policymakers across the globe, prompting many to wonder if we are that much closer to an all out world war.
How Many Wars Are Going on Right Now in 2024? So Many Conflicts, When Will WW3 Start? How Close Are We to World War 3 in 2024? What Countries Will Be in World War 3? Top 6 Economic Impacts of World War III Based on a World War II Analysis Final Thoughts on a World War Three Scenario Frequently Asked QuestionsTable of Contents
Source: Al Jazeera
How Many Wars Are Going on Right Now in 2024?
Several significant conflicts rage globally, each driven by deep-seated historical, political, and social tensions.
Here’s a summary of the most critical ongoing wars listed by casualties in 2024:
1. Ukraine-Russia War
In the heart of Eastern Europe, the invasion of Ukraine has escalated into a full-scale war since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. What began with Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 has turned into a brutal struggle for control over Ukrainian territories. The war has brought widespread devastation, with key regions in Ukraine reduced to rubble and thousands of lives lost. Despite immense pressure, Ukraine continues to stand firm, bolstered by support from Western allies, in its fight to reclaim sovereignty over its land. The conflict shows no signs of abating as both sides remain locked in a deadly standoff.
2. Palestine-Israel Conflict
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza escalated dramatically in October 2023 after a surprise attack by Hamas resulted in Israel launching a full-scale military operation. The conflict has led to significant loss of life and massive destruction, particularly in Gaza, where civilian infrastructure has been heavily targeted. Despite international calls for a ceasefire, the fighting continues, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region as thousands of civilians are caught in the crossfire.
3. Sudanese Civil War
In Sudan, a nation already scarred by decades of conflict, civil war erupted once again in April 2023. The breakdown of peace talks between the military government and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) plunged the country into chaos. The fighting has been particularly fierce in the capital, Khartoum and the Darfur region, leading to a humanitarian disaster with millions displaced and countless casualties. International efforts to mediate peace have so far failed, leaving Sudan in the grips of violence and uncertainty.
4. Myanmar Civil War
Myanmar’s descent into civil war began in earnest following the military coup in February 2021, which ousted the democratically elected government. The ensuing conflict has seen fierce resistance from ethnic groups and pro-democracy forces against the military junta. The war has been marked by widespread atrocities, including attacks on civilians, with no end in sight as of 2024. The country remains deeply divided, with the military struggling to maintain control amidst growing international condemnation.
5. Ethiopian Conflict
In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s internal conflict, primarily centered in the Tigray region, has continued to devastate the country. Despite a brief ceasefire in 2022, the fighting resumed in 2023, involving multiple ethnic groups and resulting in a dire humanitarian situation. The conflict has caused mass displacement, famine, and severe human rights abuses, leaving Ethiopia on the brink of collapse.
6. Haiti Gang Violence
Haiti, though not in a state of traditional warfare, is engulfed in violent chaos due to rampant gang violence following the assassination of its president in 2021. The gangs have effectively taken control of large portions of the country, including the capital, Port-au-Prince, leading to widespread displacement and a severe breakdown of law and order. Despite efforts by the international community to stabilize the situation, Haiti remains near-anarchy, with no clear path to recovery.
7. Mexican Drug Violence
The ongoing conflict in Mexico, commonly known as the Mexican Drug War, represents a brutal struggle for power among various drug cartels and between these criminal organizations and the Mexican government. Since its escalation in 2006, when the government launched a military-led crackdown on the cartels, the conflict has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and led to widespread fear and instability.
In 2024, the violence remains unchecked, with powerful cartels like the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) battling for dominance over drug trafficking routes and territories. The conflict is marked by extreme brutality—assassinations, kidnappings, and mass murders have become grimly routine, leaving communities shattered and terrorized. Entire regions, particularly in states like Michoacán and Guerrero, are plagued by this violence, with local populations caught in the crossfire.
Despite government efforts to restore order, including the deployment of the National Guard, the cartels continue to exert significant control. Their influence is deeply embedded in the political and economic fabric of the country, further complicating efforts to end the violence. The cartels have diversified their operations, expanding into human trafficking, extortion, and other criminal activities, which only deepens their entrenchment and makes the path to peace more elusive.
Sources: Global Data and Statistics | Data Pandas, Crisis Group, World Population Review, Council on Foreign Relations
So Many Conflicts, When Will WW3 Start?
The conflicts mentioned previously highlight the volatility of our world, where deeply rooted grievances and geopolitical ambitions continue to fuel wars with devastating consequences for millions of people. But of course, all of these conflicts are independent. How could that potentially lead to World War 3, and how long before it's classified as a World War?
Well, forecasting the onset of World War 3 is highly uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of global tensions and conflicts. Regional conflicts and power struggles, particularly involving world powers, including the U.S., China, and Russia, pose significant risks. Experts suggest that a global war is not inevitable in the near future, perhaps even within the next 5-10 years. The potential for escalation exists, but it largely depends on how these powers manage current conflicts and navigate their relationships. Vigilance and proactive diplomacy are crucial in mitigating these risks and preventing global catastrophe.
Source: An AI generated image of a post World War 3 UN Hall
How Close Are We to World War 3 in 2024?
While we don't know the exact world war 3 start date, the threat of a global conflict is becoming increasingly real in today's rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. This leads to a follow up question: how likely is world war 3? As tensions escalate across multiple regions, the possibility of a third world war is no longer just a distant fear—it's a scenario that demands our attention. Let’s explore how these developments could shape the future and what it means for global stability.
The Israel-Palestine Conflict and a Wider Middle East War
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, particularly the intensified military actions in Gaza following the Hamas-led attack on Israel, has raised the stakes in the Middle East to dangerous levels. The amount of bombs dropped by Israel on Gaza has officially surpassed World War II with an approximate 70,000 tons since October 7, 2023. The possibility of this war in Gaza igniting a broader regional war is very real, given the involvement of powerful players like Iran and its regional allies.
Iran's Influence:
Iran’s strategic role in the Middle East cannot be underestimated. Its support for Hamas and Hezbollah, coupled with its nuclear ambitions, positions Iran as a central figure in this conflict. More recently, the Taliban held a victory parade with millions worth of US and Soviet military equipment. Any further escalation, particularly involving Iran's proxies, could quickly spread the conflict across the region, drawing in more countries and escalating the situation to a critical level.
Critical Flashpoint: Israel-Lebanon Border
The border between Israel and Lebanon, where Hezbollah operates with substantial backing from Iran, remains one of the most volatile regions in the world. A significant escalation here could quickly become a full-scale regional war involving multiple countries and possibly global powers.
U.S. Involvement:
The United States has been a steadfast ally of Israel, providing military and diplomatic support. If the conflict escalates, the U.S. may be drawn indirectly, especially if Iranian forces or their proxies intensify their actions. This scenario increases the risk of a broader conflict involving other global powers, creating a highly volatile situation.
The Russia-Ukraine War and NATO Expansion
The war in Ukraine, initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, continues to pose a significant threat to global peace. Recent bombardments and attacks on Kyiv have heightened fears. Experts suggest that Russia would continue asserting its power in Eastern Europe, potentially leading to further escalations with NATO forces.
NATO's Role:
NATO's ongoing military support for Ukraine has been vital, but it also carries the risk of escalating the conflict further. Any direct involvement of NATO forces in the fighting could provoke Russia and lead to a broader war, potentially involving multiple European nations.
Russia's Ambitions:
If Russia achieves its military objectives in Ukraine, it might feel emboldened to expand its influence into other neighboring countries, particularly those with historical ties to the Soviet Union. A prime example is Poland, which has played a crucial role in supporting Ukraine by providing military aid and sheltering millions of Ukrainian refugees. The prospect of retaliation against Poland and potentially many more European countries remains a critical concern. Such actions could trigger a direct response from NATO, escalating the situation into a larger and more dangerous conflict.
Tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait
China's aggressive stance in the South China Sea and its intentions toward Taiwan present another significant global risk.
Taiwan's Strategic Importance:
The situation around Taiwan is highly unstable, with China's claims over the island clashing with the United States' commitment to supporting Taiwan’s autonomy. Any move by China to forcibly reunify Taiwan could lead to direct military confrontation with the U.S. and its allies, resulting in a broader conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
Risk of Miscalculation:
The South China Sea is a hotspot for military activity, with frequent encounters between Chinese forces and those of other nations, including the U.S. The risk of an accidental clash escalating into a full-scale conflict is high, particularly given the region's strategic importance.
Broader Global Trends Create Increasing Risks
Beyond these specific flashpoints, broader global trends contribute to the rising global conflict risk.
Shifting Global Power Dynamics:
As China rises as a global power, challenging the United States' dominance, the world is becoming increasingly multipolar. This shift leads to heightened competition and increases the risk of conflict as nations jostle for influence and control over strategic regions.
Weakening International Norms:
Countries like Russia and China's growing disregard for international norms, particularly their willingness to use military force to achieve their objectives, is eroding the stability that these norms provide. This trend makes it more difficult to resolve conflicts through diplomacy and increases the likelihood that regional disputes will escalate into more significant wars.
Economic and Resource Competition:
As resources become scarcer, competition for control and access could lead to conflicts, particularly in regions like the Arctic, where climate change opens up new opportunities. This competition could further strain relations between major powers, raising the risk of conflict.
The convergence of these regional conflicts and broader global trends creates a volatile environment where the risk of a global war, potentially World War III, is increasingly plausible.
Western Alliance v. Eastern Powers (Original Image by MIRA Safety)
What Countries Will Be in World War 3?
A Complex web of alliances may form as we creep closer to a global conflict. The question of which countries would be involved is a matter of educated speculation grounded in current geopolitical tensions, historical alliances around world powers, and, ultimately, their interests. While specific predictions are challenging, several key actors and alliances will likely play significant roles. Here is a list of core players.
United States and its Allies
The U.S. is central due to its superpower status and global military reach. Likely allies include NATO members, especially those in Europe close to Russia, and Asia-Pacific partners like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines. These alliances are shaped by shared strategic interests and mutual defense commitments, particularly in response to threats from Russia and China.
Russia and its Potential Allies
Russia remains a significant player, particularly given its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and adversarial stance toward the West. Potential allies include Iran, which shares common goals with Russia in the Middle East, and possibly China, though China’s direct support for Russia in a global conflict remains uncertain. Russia's ability to draw these nations into a broader conflict could shift the international balance of power.
Wildcard: China the Shark
Given its growing economic and military power, assertiveness in the South China Sea, and ambitions regarding Taiwan, China's role is critical. Like a shark, China moves strategically and relentlessly, asserting its dominance in regional waters while circling potential conflicts with calculated caution. While China has so far avoided direct military involvement in conflicts like Ukraine, its stance on Taiwan could provoke a major confrontation with the U.S. and its allies, potentially igniting a wider war.
Conditional: North Korea, the Remora fish
Like the remora, which is relatively powerless without the shark, North Korea’s autonomy is limited by its reliance on China. Korea depends heavily on China for economic support, trade, and diplomatic backing. North Korea’s unpredictable behavior and nuclear capabilities make it a potential addition to the wildcard. While not necessarily a central player, North Korea's actions could destabilize the region, particularly if it aligns with China.
The Uncertainties:
Predicting the exact alliances in a hypothetical World War Three is inherently uncertain. Global partnerships are fluid, influenced by shifting geopolitical interests, economic interdependence, and unforeseen events. These factors could rapidly alter the composition of sides in a global conflict, making any predictions speculative at best.
While the current geopolitical landscape offers clues about potential alliances, the actual participants in World War 3 would likely be determined by the evolving dynamics of international relations, making it impossible to predict which countries would be involved definitively.
Top 6 Economic Impacts of World War III Based on a World War II Analysis
1. Unprecedented Destruction and Economic Toll
Magnitude of Destruction
World War II, a conflict that reshaped the world, incurred an economic cost of approximately $4 trillion in today’s terms. The devastation was vast, leaving cities in ruins and industries decimated. However, if World War III were to occur, the scale of destruction would likely be far greater, driven by modern military advancements like nuclear war, cyberattacks, and biological agents. The impact wouldn’t just be physical; the interconnected global economy, reliant on complex supply chains, would face crippling disruptions across key sectors such as energy, technology, and finance.
Economic Toll Magnified by Modern Dependencies
Today’s economies are interwoven, with global trade forming a significant part of national outputs. Unlike the WWII era, when countries could rely on internal resources, modern nations depended on a steady flow of goods and services from around the globe. Disruptions in critical regions, especially those involved in semiconductor production or energy supply, could set off a chain reaction, severely damaging entire industries and leading to unprecedented economic losses.
2. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Historical Disruptions During WWII
World War II saw significant interruptions in global trade due to naval blockades and the redirection of resources to the war effort. These disruptions caused shortages and required nations to adapt their industrial output.
Projected Impacts in a Future Conflict
The disruption of supply chains would likely be more severe in the event of World War III. The modern economy’s dependence on just-in-time manufacturing, where goods are produced and delivered as needed, makes it highly vulnerable. For instance, the concentration of semiconductor production in specific regions like Taiwan and South Korea means that conflicts could halt global technology production, affecting everything from consumer electronics to essential military hardware.
3. Hyperinflation and Currency Devaluation
Lessons from WWII's Inflation
The economic aftermath of World War II brought severe inflation to many countries, driven by enormous government spending, shortages of goods, and diminished confidence in currencies. Nations like Austria, France, and Japan experienced inflation rates that devastated savings and destabilized their economies.
Potential for Hyperinflation in WWIII
A global conflict today could trigger hyperinflation on an even larger scale. The destruction of infrastructure, massive population displacement, and the potential collapse of financial systems could erode confidence in major currencies. The modern reliance on fiat currencies, unsupported by tangible assets, could make the global economy particularly susceptible to runaway inflation. In such a scenario, alternative stores of value, such as cryptocurrencies or commodities, might become more attractive, further destabilizing traditional financial systems.
4. The Dollar’s Future and a New Global Order
Post-WWII Financial Reorganization
After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement established the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, creating a stable financial environment for post-war reconstruction. This system entrenched US dominance in global finance.
Emerging Shifts in the Financial System
World War III could dismantle the current dollar-dominated financial system. The rise of alternative power blocs like the BRICS nations and their push for a multipolar financial order could lead to the establishment of a new global financial framework. This could involve a shift towards regional or digital currencies, or a system based on commodity-backed currencies. New institutions would likely accompany such a transformation to manage the complexities of post-war reconstruction and global trade.
5. Long-Term Economic and Social Upheaval
Post-WWII Economic Recovery
The recovery from World War II was slow and uneven, with many countries experiencing prolonged economic hardship, high debt, and social unrest. While Western Europe benefited from the Marshall Plan, other regions, particularly within the Soviet bloc, struggled to recover.
Extrapolating to World War III
The long-term effects of World War III could be even more severe. Massive debt accumulation, widespread destruction, and potential climate change impacts could stifle global economic growth for decades. Social upheaval might be exacerbated by population displacement, the breakdown of social services, and the rise of authoritarian regimes. The psychological and cultural scars of a global conflict, especially one involving weapons of mass destruction, could lead to a more fragmented and unstable world order, with lasting impacts on global economic and social systems.
6. Climate Change as a Compounding Factor
Environmental Impacts of WWII
World War II left a significant environmental footprint, including deforestation, pollution, and habitat destruction. However, the environmental damage from World War III could be far more catastrophic, especially if nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons are deployed.
Climate Change in a Post-World War III Scenario
The environmental consequences of World War III could exacerbate existing climate challenges, leading to more frequent and severe weather events, food and water shortages, and mass migrations. The economic burden of addressing these environmental crises would compound the already staggering costs of post-war recovery, potentially leading to prolonged global instability and hardship.
Secure your survival with essential MIRA Safety gear!
4 Steps on Preparing for World War 3
While it’s impossible to predict the exact economic impacts of World War III, historical parallels with World War II offer a stark warning. The potential for destruction, coupled with modern dependencies, could result in unprecedented economic devastation, hyperinflation, and a reordering of the global financial system. The long-term consequences could create a world marked by economic stagnation, social upheaval, and a fundamentally altered global order. Preparedness is paramount to surviving a World War 3 scenario.
1. Physical and Mental Preparation
Basic Preparedness
Start with the essentials. Before tackling the complexities of a global conflict, ensure your readiness for more common emergencies like power outages or localized disasters. Build a solid foundation by securing basic supplies—food, water, and medical necessities. Aim for at least a week’s worth, but the longer you can sustain yourself, the better. Your bug-out bag should be ready to grab, packed with essentials tailored for various situations, ensuring you can evacuate immediately.
Physical Fitness
Your physical condition can differentiate between life and death in a crisis. Prioritize fitness with a clear goal: the ability to run three consecutive miles in under 18 minutes. This level of endurance and speed is critical when quick action is required to reach safety.
Mental Resilience
Prepare your mind and body. The psychological demands of war are immense, making mental resilience a crucial aspect of survival. Equip yourself with stress management techniques like mindfulness and controlled breathing. Your emotional support network—family and friends—will be vital in maintaining morale and mental clarity during tough times.
Self-Defense and Firearm Use
In a chaotic world, self-defense becomes a necessary skill. Train in hand-to-hand combat and familiarize yourself with firearms, but do so with caution. Proper training and legal adherence are non-negotiable. Firearms should be a last resort, with a strong preference for resolving conflicts nonviolently whenever possible.
2. Shelter and Supplies
Securing a Safe Shelter
Your shelter is your sanctuary. Identify the safest locations in your home or community, such as underground bunkers or reinforced basements. These should be evaluated for their ability to withstand a range of threats, ensuring they provide true protection when needed.
Stockpiling Essential Supplies
A well-prepared shelter is stocked with the essentials. Ensure you have enough water—at least one gallon per person per day—and non-perishable food providing 2,000 calories daily per person. Comprehensive medical supplies, including first aid and radiation protection, are a must. Don’t overlook the basics like hygiene items, appropriate clothing, and blankets for varying weather conditions. Reliable light sources such as flashlights, and communication tools like radios should be at hand. Keep cash in small denominations, as digital systems may fail, and have important documents, maps, and navigation tools readily accessible.
3. Financial Preparation
Hyperinflation Concerns
War can obliterate the value of traditional investments through hyperinflation. Prepare for this by reassessing your financial strategies. In such times, diversification is key—don’t rely solely on traditional savings, which may quickly lose their value.
Investing in Tangible Assets
Hedge against economic instability by investing in tangible assets. Real estate and precious metals like gold and silver have a track record of retaining value in times of uncertainty. These assets can provide a solid foundation for financial security amidst hyperinflation.
Maintaining Cash Reserves
Cash is crucial, even in a devalued state. Keep reserves in small denominations to facilitate transactions if electronic banking systems fail. Ensure this cash is securely stored but accessible in an emergency.
4. Additional Considerations
Building Community Support
Survival is a team effort. Build a network of trusted individuals within your community. Cooperation, resource sharing, and mutual protection are far more effective when done together. A strong community offers emotional support and practical assistance in times of crisis.
Understanding Potential Threats
Know your environment. Understand the specific threats you may face, whether they be military targets, natural disasters, or other vulnerabilities. Tailor your preparedness plans accordingly, considering factors like the proximity to military installations or areas prone to natural disasters.
Learning Survival Skills
Equip yourself with practical survival skills. Mastering the basics—fire-starting, first aid, gardening, and water purification—can significantly increase your chances of survival. These skills bolster your self-sufficiency and make you a valuable asset to your community.
Source: MIRA Safety
Final Thoughts on a World War Three Scenario
As global tensions rise, preparing for World War 3 becomes more than just a thought exercise—it’s a crucial step toward safeguarding your future. While the specific countries involved in such a conflict remain uncertain, your readiness should not.
By focusing on physical and mental resilience, securing your shelter and essential supplies, planning your financial strategy, and building a strong community network, you can enhance your ability to withstand the challenges of a global conflict. In a world where uncertainty prevails, proactive preparation is the key to survival and stability, ensuring that you and your loved ones are equipped to face whatever comes next. For more information on disaster preparation and the gear needed for the next major war, visit our website and follow MIRA Safety to stay up to date.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sources:
- Geopolitical Tensions and Global Conflicts
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Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Link to Book
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Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Link to Book
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Kissinger, H. (2014). World Order. Link to Book
- Current Conflicts and Potential Flashpoints
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Crisis Group. (2024). Conflict Tracker: Key Conflicts to Watch in 2024. Link to Resource
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Council on Foreign Relations. (2024). Global Conflict Tracker. Link to Resource
- Economic and Social Impacts of War
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Findlay, R., & O'Rourke, K. H. (2007). Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium. Link to Book
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Tooze, A. (2018). Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World. Link to Book
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Sagan, S. D., & Waltz, K. (2013). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate. Link to Book
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Freedman, L. (2017). The Future of War: A History. Link to Book
- Regional Focuses (Middle East, Eastern Europe, East Asia)
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Gelvin, J. L. (2020). The Israel-Palestine Conflict: A History. Link to Book
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Sakwa, R. (2015). Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands. I.B. Tauris. Link to Book
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Shambaugh, D. (2020). China and the World. Link to Book
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Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley. Link to Book
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Gaddis, J. L. (2005). The Cold War: A New History. Link to Book